A recent survey of 28 leading banks conducted by law firm Haynes Boone projects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $58.30 per barrel in 2025. This forecast reflects a downward revision from the previous Fall 2024 estimate of $61.89 per barrel, driven largely by a $10-per-barrel price decline experienced in April.
The Spring 2025 Energy Bank Price Deck Survey—now in its 12th year and featuring a record number of participants—reveals a year-on-year price drop of approximately $1.50 per barrel compared to the prior forecast. Despite this adjustment, the long-term outlook remains stable, with average oil prices expected to hover between $56.24 and $57.24 per barrel through 2034.
Haynes Boone attributes the overall price softening to increased production levels, fueled by enhanced output from OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers, alongside relatively steady global oil demand. The law firm noted that pro-production policies and deregulation initiatives introduced during the Trump administration continue to influence supply expectations.
“Banks are focusing on fundamental market dynamics rather than short-term volatility or trade policy noise,” said Kim Mai, Partner in Haynes Boone’s Energy Practice Group. “While the April price drop had to be considered, it has not altered the banks’ long-term outlook, which anticipates a gradual rebalancing of supply and demand.”
Mai added that banks tend to adopt conservative price forecasts, which typically trail current market prices. Indeed, WTI crude traded near $63 per barrel early Wednesday—close to the breakeven cost for many U.S. shale producers.
Industry executives echo this caution. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance recently highlighted that shale production is likely to plateau if prices remain in the low $60s and decline if prices fall into the $50 range. Data from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q1 further indicates that drillers require an average price of $65 per barrel to profitably bring new wells online.
This collective insight underscores the balancing act faced by producers amid a volatile geopolitical and policy environment, with fundamental supply and demand factors continuing to drive market expectations.
