OPEC’s crude oil production rose modestly in May, missing the more substantial increase outlined in the group’s OPEC+ agreement, which had called for a significant output boost.
According to a survey released Monday, the 12 member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) collectively pumped 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in May. This represents a month-on-month rise of just 150,000 bpd.
Under the OPEC+ framework, five OPEC members currently in the process of gradually reversing earlier production cuts were expected to raise their collective output by 310,000 bpd in May. However, they managed an increase of only 180,000 bpd, based on data compiled from oil flow tracking firms and sources within OPEC, oil companies, and consultancy groups.
The shortfall is attributed primarily to Iraq, which implemented additional cuts to offset a history of exceeding its production quotas. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also failed to reach their targeted increases.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer and the de facto leader of the broader OPEC+ alliance, contributed the most to the monthly gain, lifting its output by 130,000 bpd. This increase, while the largest among OPEC members, still fell short of expectations but is consistent with the kingdom’s larger share of past production cuts.
OPEC+ producers—those who previously committed to cutbacks—are now phasing out those reductions in stages, with a combined increase of 411,000 bpd planned for May, June, and July. The alliance recently reaffirmed its commitment to this strategy, announcing plans for another 411,000 bpd boost in July, citing favorable oil market conditions and a steady global economic outlook.
However, analysts remain skeptical about the pace of recovery in actual production levels. In a note published Monday, Morgan Stanley’s commodity research team, led by Martijn Rats, noted that the expected increase in output had yet to materialize.
“Despite a roughly one million barrels per day rise in production quotas from March to June, there is little tangible evidence of higher output,” the analysts said. “Notably, it does not appear that production in Saudi Arabia has ramped up significantly.”
Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley forecasts that OPEC+ will eventually increase production by approximately 420,000 bpd between June and September, a move the bank says could shift the oil market into surplus.
