Brent crude prices could climb by as much as $10 per barrel from their current level in the mid-$70s due to rising geopolitical tensions, according to a new estimate by Goldman Sachs. The investment bank also warned that prices could surge past $90 per barrel if Iranian oil exports are significantly disrupted.
Analysts at Goldman pointed to recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by Yemen’s Houthi rebels as a stark reminder of the vulnerability of Middle Eastern oil supply routes. These disruptions underscore how swiftly regional instability can reverberate through global energy markets.
Despite these concerns, Goldman’s base-case forecast remains unchanged. The bank expects Brent crude to average around $60 per barrel in the final quarter of the year—on the condition that there is no major disruption to supply. However, the likelihood of such a stable scenario is increasingly in doubt.
Rhetoric from former U.S. President Donald Trump has added to the uncertainty. In recent remarks, Trump suggested the United States might support Israel in military strikes against Iran.
“I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told reporters earlier this week.
The comments drew immediate backlash from figures within his own political base. Former White House strategist Steve Bannon warned against U.S. military involvement, invoking the memory of past conflicts.
“We can’t do this again,” Bannon said at an event in Washington. “We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq.”
Trump acknowledged the growing opposition, but remained firm in his stance:
“I’m not looking to fight. But if it’s a choice between them fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do.”
In the meantime, oil prices have edged lower as traders wait for greater clarity on Washington’s position.
Adding to the concern, Barclays issued a warning that crude prices could soar above $100 per barrel if the Middle East conflict escalates further. The bank also projected that Brent could reach $85 if just half of Iran’s oil exports—currently over 2 million barrels per day, primarily to China—are interrupted.
As tensions continue to mount, both analysts and policymakers are closely monitoring the situation, knowing that any misstep could trigger a spike in energy prices with global consequences.
